The world economy maintains a weak trajectory marked by the developed countries and the adjustments in the emerging exporting economies. On the one hand, the developed countries maintain anemic growth weighed down by structural factors that the authorities refuse to face decisively, and by the other China, which could give us a scare with decreases in growth expectations. We believe that these fundamental changes with the fall in productivity, demographic changes and the increase in inequality have reduced the potential growth rate and affect the behavior of the basic variables: real equilibrium rates and inflation.
We think that many of the economic authorities still do not recognize this diagnosis, and think that the financial hangover and the European debt crisis have caused the delay and the weakness of the cycle. But the reality is that monetary policy has limitations and collateral effects that pose a risk to global financial stability.
Only consumption has sustained the North American growth, driven by a job that shows signs of exhaustion.
Apart from the structural factors, which in our opinion hinder activity, the greatest short-term risk is the evolution of the United States, which is already in a very advanced cycle with investment, the foreign sector and the public contributing nothing or very little to growth. Only consumption has contributed to North American growth, which has been driven by strong job creation that is already showing signs of slowing down.
With these long-term expectations, we maintain a defensive position without risk in equities, and focused on profitability strategies via coupons of the fixed-income portfolio and dividends. Our biggest bet is corporate bonds, where hybrids and financial AT1s stand out. In equities we have exposure to the European real estate and telecommunications sector.